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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Largest divergence between S&P 500 and $BTC in years. A catch-up trade will happen at some point. https://t.co/kISjXZSW3w

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,277 at 5 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,343 at 6 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 64343.02 / 64277.04 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time