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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Aug 2026, 18:03 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

exitpump

@exitpumpBTC

$BTC Spot CVDs are going up, but price isn't. Passive sellers are absorbing aggressive buyers limiting the upside. https://t.co/UkNRJyARVi

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,261 at 4 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,733 at 5 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 64733 / 64261.41 − 1 = +0.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time