Prediction evidence

Quoting · 3 Aug 2026, 17:05 UTC · context given to the AI

@GeoMetric_9 Looks like BTC really wants to put in the bottom exactly one year after the ATH (October).

In reply to · 3 Aug 2026, 20:06 UTC · context given to the AI

A rare signal has flashed for bitcoin:native I've always shared my findings here no matter what and no matter what my bias is. As you might be aware from my recent posts, I've been working on this theory of 'Ignition' since I launched the Quantmetric Terminal and have since been trying to come up with strategies for execution. This latest interpretation of Ignition is currently not in an ignition window. While I was experimenting with the data I have just stumbled upon these signals represented by the purple dots. If you look back on the bitcoin:native chart, these are very rare and have only flashed twice before, both in the middle of the bear market and both preceding further capitulation down. This is a work in progress and I cannot get into the details of how this is calculated etc. but I thought it's my responsibility to share it. I do not know if this will play out like it did previously, and should we get another correction, I do not know if that would mean losing the lows. This does not change my macro thesis, and as per the Geometric time chart in the quoted post, historically we have not seen new lows post the 'capitulation' window in the past going back to 2011. The value area as per that chart is under $61k. So the best case scenario is we pump straight up from here and at the very least, visit the value area under $61k and hold the lows. The worst case is losing the lows and dropping significantly below 54k. Bear in mind that the wider market backdrop was very different during the last times and I do not anticipate as aggressive a push downwards as the previous times. Also note the isolated purple dot at the 2022 low in November that reprinted at the low with no further continuation downward, but confirmed by no further dots appearing. Confirmation of this danger being averted comes once these purple circles disappear, and further confirmation once the new ignition window opens. My macro bias remains unchanged. I will not be replying to people who are triggered by this post. These signals only flash on the weekly so we'll need to wait for weekly closes to see when this perceived danger has been averted. If you need more short term reads on what's going on, check out @The_JDK99 who has a razon sharp eye on the order books.