Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,813 at 3 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $63,467 at 4 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
3. r = 63466.51 / 63813.49 − 1 = -0.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology