Prediction evidence

Te

Ted

@TedPillows

Daily report, Monday, August 3, 2026 I see this morning's Iran relief trade as a European stocks story, not a crypto story, because bitcoin is sitting at a three-week low while the DAX rallies. My read is that crypto is trading its own bad news, the Senate just left the CLARITY Act off Monday's schedule and Strategy remains a seller, so I want BTC to hold $60,000 before I call this dip buyable. In this report: https://t.co/zLknNvDof8 - Trump paused planned strikes on Iran and said peace talks resume today. Brent crude fell 4.4% to $84.03 and WTI fell 5.5% to $79.99, both snapping back from a 20%-plus jump in July. - The Senate left the CLARITY Act off Monday's floor schedule with just five days before recess. If it doesn't pass by Friday, the crypto market-structure bill is parked until September 14, and Galaxy Research has already cut its 2026 passage odds from 50% to 30%. - The relief is uneven. Germany's DAX jumped 1.3% and France's CAC rose 1%, but US futures are only modestly higher, the Nikkei closed down 1.7%, and bitcoin fell 1.7% to $62,400, its lowest since mid-July. - CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 68% chance the Fed hikes rates, not cuts them, at the September 16 meeting. That's up from the low 60s a week ago, because oil is still running 22% higher than a year ago even after today's drop. - The FTSE 100 sat flat while the rest of Europe rallied, because London's index is loaded with oil majors like Shell and BP that lose when crude drops. - Michael Saylor pushed back on reports of a new $5 billion Strategy Bitcoin sale plan on August 1. MSTR still closed Friday at $93.28 after its $8.22 billion quarterly loss and is slipping again in premarket, and the company hasn't bought Bitcoin in five weeks. - Bitcoin's price sits below every major moving average right now, a technical setup I call a danger zone until it reclaims $65,200. - Bitcoin dominance is near 58.5%, still range-bound but drifting toward the low end of the range it's held since last August, which tells me money is hiding in bitcoin rather than rotating into altcoins. - On-chain, a dormant wallet moved $1.04 billion in bitcoin today with no sign it went to an exchange, more likely a custody move than a sale. Bitcoin ETFs saw a $265 million net outflow on the last posted day. - This week's key dates: nonfarm payrolls Friday, CPI on August 12, and monthly options expiration on August 21, all setting up the September 16 Fed meeting. - My bottom line: oil just had its worst day of the year, but only Europe is celebrating. Crypto is trading its own news, a stalled CLARITY Act and a seller in Strategy, and that is the real story today.