Skip to content

Leaderboard Tape Arena Token Docs

Loading…

Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Claim profile Invite friends Documentation Terms & risk Privacy X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @BigCheds / 2083618076986085546:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Aug 2026, 18:17 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Bi

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

$BTC 4H bear pennant flirting with a breakdown https://t.co/VSizLs7m6n

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,522 at 1 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $62,765 at 1 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
r = 62765.36 / 62521.66 − 1 = +0.4%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC 4H bear pennant flirting with a breakdown https://t.co/VSizLs7m6n”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$62,522

Evaluation price

$62,765

Move

+0.4%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 18:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction