Loading…

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

I SAID $60K DECIDES THE BITCOIN BOTTOM. PRICE IS NOW $62,935. The monthly gain has faded from 12% to 7.5%. Two taps on the 2021 top, same as 2022 did on the 2017 top. Lose $60K on a monthly close and will go much lower... Three thousand dollars from finding out. https://t.co/hAiyFzpCv0

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,998 at 1 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,143 at 2 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 63142.76 / 62998.16 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “I SAID $60K DECIDES THE BITCOIN BOTTOM.”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction