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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2083449455542407667:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Aug 2026, 07:07 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$BTC / $USD - Update That dip is what i am looking for this weekend. Market structure is bearish and so we can act this way. https://t.co/oIlfOUOQH8

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,992 at 1 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $64,929 at 8 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
r = 64928.8 / 62991.5 − 1 = +3.08%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -3.08% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC / $USD - Update”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: incorrect

Baseline price

$62,992

Evaluation price

$64,929

Move

+3.08%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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