Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Jul 2026, 13:48 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

Quoting · 29 Jul 2026, 21:22 UTC · context given to the AI

#Bitcoin Primary scenario is still a drop to $61,000 area. https://t.co/rbkq2NVSUy https://t.co/FOtoJiMjCr

#Bitcoin trying to ruin all the fun heading into the weekend. Still primary scenario and I'm not sure if it'll bounce at $61k support or nuke through it (if reached) https://t.co/1E6VTAMzB4 https://t.co/85H4bTxddA

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,194 at 31 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,009 at 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 63009.44 / 63193.7 − 1 = -0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “#Bitcoin trying to ruin all the fun heading into the weekend.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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