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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Jul 2026, 09:43 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC

Cold Blooded Shiller

@ColdBloodShill

Divergence on $ETH getting very clear now. Going to take a lot of work to stop this from rolling over. $2,000 looks such an attractive level to at least get a sweep, perhaps the weakness in even being able to achieve that target is telling. https://t.co/YgnrWyF28j

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,882 at 31 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,866 at 1 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 1866.3 / 1881.92 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Divergence on $ETH getting very clear now.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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