Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $mubarak price at or after publication, $0.01311 at 31 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.01251 at 1 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.012513068842676 / 0.0131102742511413 − 1 = -4.6%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -4.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology