Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

The previous time that the Nasdaq bounced upwards from the lows resulted into the recent rally of #Bitcoin from $66,000 to $83,000. I think we're close to a similar situation where then Nasdaq is likely to bounce upwards and #Bitcoin will outperform to the same regions. https://t.co/FiPMD3k8q1

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,615 at 30 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,594 at 31 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 62594.31 / 64614.52 − 1 = -3.13%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.13% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “The previous time that the Nasdaq bounced upwards from the lows resulted into the recent rally of #Bitcoin from $66,000 to $83,000.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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