Prediction evidence

Te

Ted

@TedPillows

Daily report, Thursday, July 30, 2026 I'm not chasing this small bounce until the PCE data and Strategy's earnings confirm the picture. Yesterday's hawkish Fed dissent and the fresh oil shock keep the risk tilted lower, even with Bitcoin holding far steadier than stocks. In this report: https://t.co/qvpLKcl8EQ - The Fed held interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three regional presidents dissented and wanted a hike, the first three-way hawkish split since 2016. - Oil jumped again, Brent up 6.6% to $89.61 and WTI up 6.6% to $84.46, after renewed Israel-Iran strikes and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. - The Nasdaq 100 fell into correction, down about 10% from its June high, and the Dow had its worst day since April 2025. - Bitcoin is little changed near $64,500. Today's crypto move is narrow, not broad: Solana is up 4.8% and Chainlink up 1.6%, while XRP, Dogecoin and SUI are flat to lower. - Strategy and Coinbase both report earnings today after the close, and Strategy's average Bitcoin cost is now above the current price for the first time this cycle. - Bitcoin ETFs swung from a small outflow Tuesday to a $32 million inflow Wednesday, while Ethereum ETFs swung the other way into a $33 million outflow. - Gold is holding near $4,081 even though rising real yields should normally hurt it, today's Market Blind Spot. - Europe is higher too, but on a tech story, not an oil story: a semiconductor rebound lifted the CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 after strong Micron and Qualcomm outlooks. - Whales added about 66,700 Bitcoin over the past two months, one of the strongest accumulation waves this year. - Today's GDP and inflation data, plus tonight's earnings, will decide whether Bitcoin's resilience holds up.