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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Jul 2026, 14:25 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

Quoting · 27 Jul 2026, 13:52 UTC · context given to the AI

$ETH / $BTC is testing the top of its long-running descending channel from October 2025. 👀 Resistance until proven otherwise, so don't just assume ETH continues to strengthen against BTC, despite the thousands of posts telling you otherwise. https://t.co/vAmFfiv2fb

No, $ETH/ $BTC still hasn't broken out. In fact, it looks more bearish now than this time last week. https://t.co/XupHA8wj1E https://t.co/MNf2Wwamc2

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,893 at 29 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,916 at 30 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 1915.57 / 1892.7 − 1 = +1.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“@CryptoYoddha Maybe, but there's also this... Not to mention a massive inefficiency below 1700 and RSI bearish divergence. https://t.co/ctQUZPCgPx”Repeat29 Jul 2026, 15:56 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “No, $ETH/ $BTC still hasn't broken out.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record