Loading…
Published 29 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC
₿IRB
@crypto_birb
Mid-week $BTC check. Price at $64,400. Back above the rising 200-week SMA at $63,560. Mind it's always rising. Still deep below the falling 50-week SMA at $84,374. With 1-year lag it rises in bulls and falls in bear markets. Yes, the 200W anchors local support but the structure stays bearish until the 50W flips. August seasonality is not helping either. Looking back last 16 years: -1.49% avg gain, -6.24% median. Bearish numbers. Win rate 31.25% from 5 gains and 11 losses. In other words, almost 70% chance it's not bullish. Currently on a 4-year losing streak. Anyone waiting to see sub $60k slide again?View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 64839.6 / 64201.9 − 1 = +1.0%d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction