Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,916 at 28 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,882 at 29 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
3. r = 1882.01 / 1916.1 − 1 = -1.8%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology