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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Jul 2026, 14:41 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

I hope a lot of people sell $ETH in fear the coming weeks. Give it to me. Give me your $ETH. You can buy it back later above $4000.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,887 at 28 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $1,871 at 4 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 1871.14 / 1886.83 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time