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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Jul 2026, 08:52 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC failed to hold the $65,000 level. This happened as the Senate put the Clarity Act on hold. Now, the next key support level for Bitcoin is $62,000-$65,000. This should hold, or else BTC will end up giving all the gains. https://t.co/CVFjOqdY4Q

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,354 at 28 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,342 at 29 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 64342.35 / 63353.5 − 1 = +1.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC failed to hold the $65,000 level.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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