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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 Jul 2026, 23:05 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC

Alejandro₿TC

@Alejandro_XBT

I'll say it again for those who still haven't read it or haven't understood it. Bitcoin is not at the bottom. This is not the bottom. We're still a long way from it. You'll understand why in a few months.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,693 at 28 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,847 at 29 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 63847.12 / 63693.44 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin is not at the bottom.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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