Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

exitpump

@exitpumpBTC

Quoting · 27 Jul 2026, 15:27 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 55% chance Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/ZNKy4fg6g2

$BTC Today's NYO bounce almost trapped me ngl, thought it's pump into 90d rvwap and sweep, but price couldn't hold above 65K and we are dumping back inside value area. Looks good for more downside from here. https://t.co/TQi8539sT7 https://t.co/DzYXUnmsXo

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,475 at 27 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,858 at 28 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 63857.58 / 64475.17 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC Today's NYO bounce almost trapped me ngl, thought it's pump into 90d rvwap and sweep, but price couldn't hold above 65K and we are dumping back inside value area.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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