Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Jul 2026, 18:27 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC

Poseidon

@CryptoPoseidonn

Quoting · 26 Jul 2026, 17:28 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Our traders forecast Ethereum will crash to $1,500 this year https://t.co/1OGSGu6QGI

If $ETH drops under $1,500, I will sell my house to buy more. https://t.co/YUHlAvKHCA https://t.co/xUrbqGWb0T

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,913 at 26 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,937 at 27 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 1937.19 / 1912.74 − 1 = +1.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +1.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “If $ETH drops under $1,500, I will sell my house to buy more.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3