Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,857 at 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,884 at 26 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
3. r = 1884.21 / 1856.76 − 1 = +1.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology