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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 20:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

I still see no reason to be bullish on $ETH. It tested a confluence of resistance this week at $1,940 and has since broken its July trend line. Throwing a 15m chart in here for entertainment. https://t.co/XavyDh8fCN

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,859 at 24 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,871 at 25 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 1870.53 / 1859.23 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “I still see no reason to be bullish on $ETH.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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