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Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 20:10 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 24 Jul 2026, 17:41 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: A Kalshi perps trader opened a $100k long position on Bitcoin This trader will double their money if $BTC hits $76,150 Liquidation price: $53,993 https://t.co/u97TmrM1I5

In 2018 and 2022, $BTC had relief rallies of 40% after the June dump. Even a 30% pump this time could push Bitcoin to $76,000. https://t.co/1VaPp7fkgs https://t.co/PpBeu8MR6B

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“$BTC has lost the $65,000 support zone. The next key zone is $62,500-$63,000, which should hold for the next leg up in Bitcoin. https://t.co/Kzfk83WTUp”Repeat25 Jul 2026, 08:10 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “In 2018 and 2022, $BTC had relief rallies of 40% after the June dump.”
Confidence: 93%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record