Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,164 at 24 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,329 at 25 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC.
3. r = 64328.71 / 64163.76 − 1 = +0.3%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology