Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

exitpump

@exitpumpBTC

Quoting · 19 Jul 2026, 17:37 UTC · context given to the AI

$ETH I believe this trade will play out. https://t.co/zWS1dAqsZw https://t.co/3bGqjmWVGr

I am still in this short $ETH https://t.co/J5GcjW7TAj https://t.co/5upV6XzuKB

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,862 at 24 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,873 at 25 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 1873.01 / 1861.85 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “I am still in this short $ETH https://t.co/J5GcjW7TAj https://t.co/5upV6XzuKB”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3