Loading…

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

Quoting · 21 Jul 2026, 11:36 UTC · context given to the AI

Day 7 of drawing a big arrow on #Bitcoin chart until it's back above $80,000 The rocket emoji helped so I added more for maximum results.🚀🚀 https://t.co/MlHqqsHHGy https://t.co/pycVcjn6WU

Day 8 of drawing a big arrow on #Bitcoin chart until it's back above $80,000 Behold the holy trinity; a bearish Cramer tweet. It's inevitable now. https://t.co/T97B2nnnru https://t.co/4qARmF2mxM

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,716 at 24 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,056 at 25 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 64055.98 / 64715.97 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Day 8 of drawing a big arrow on #Bitcoin chart until it's back above $80,000”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction