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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 08:44 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC is still holding above the $65,000 level. Despite oil going up and the stock market dumping, Bitcoin is showing strength. It seems like BTC wants more pump here. https://t.co/aZtxHatNUj

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,255 at 24 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,809 at 25 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 63808.55 / 65255.44 − 1 = -2.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC is still holding above the $65,000 level.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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