Prediction evidence

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Ted

@TedPillows

Daily report, Thursday, July 23, 2026 I'm staying patient here rather than paying up for a bounce that oil keeps capping, because higher crude is quietly doing the Fed's tightening job into next week's meeting. I'd rather watch $64,000 get defended than chase a run back toward $66,500 that the macro tape simply is not funding yet. In this report: https://t.co/XiGguT1AQ1 - Bitcoin was turned away at its one-month high near $66,500 and sits around $65,700, boxed between an oil-driven risk-off macro and a steady ETF bid - Brent near $94 after an 11th round of US-Iran strikes revived the inflation scare, and the 10-year TIPS real yield at roughly 2.31%, a post-pandemic high, is the direct drag on every non-yielding asset - Next week's July 28-29 FOMC looms with about 63% priced for a hold, and the pre-meeting blackout is already live, so no Fedspeak steers the tape - The Market Blind Spot: ETH looks like the weak sibling near multi-month lows, but its ETF flows keep printing green and about 86,000 ETH moved into staking this week, so its float is tightening while price does nothing - ETH funds took in $72.7M on July 22 and out-took Bitcoin funds for the session, the quiet standout in the flow data - ETF flows stayed green (BTC funds +$69.1M), but the intake is passive momentum and shrinks once you net it against Strategy's standing sell posture - Japan's 10-year JGB at a multi-decade 2.75% keeps carry-unwind risk alive for levered positions everywhere - Hold $64,000 and the range lives into the FOMC; lose it and $62,500 is the next test