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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Jul 2026, 13:49 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC is going up. But leverage is still under control. No euphoria yet, and this means the rally could continue. https://t.co/QCQc72wKhx

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,909 at 22 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,831 at 23 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 64831.17 / 65909.48 − 1 = -1.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time