Prediction evidence

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Ted

@TedPillows

Daily report, Tuesday, July 21, 2026 We bought back into the market over the past week, and added more yesterday with increased sizing, as credit spreads and ETF flows never confirmed the level of equity market fear implied by the move in oil. Bitcoin's clean reclaim of $65,000 this morning provided the follow-through I was looking for before adding further exposure, shifting my stance from defensive to constructively bullish. In this report: https://t.co/4xdGzf3t8M - BTC trades $65,650, a two-week high, clearing the level that had capped it since late June, as chip stocks rebound and hopes build for renewed US-Iran talks - ETH broke above $1,900 to $1,933, a six-week high, confirming the bullish setup I'd been watching rather than just testing it - BTC ETFs just posted a fifth straight positive day, Farside's July 20 data confirms a July 14 to July 20 run of plus $727 million net. - Market Blind Spot: the market is pricing Strategy's new BTC-sale framework as a standing overhang, but this week management again chose equity dilution over liquidation, that gap between fear and revealed behavior is underpriced - Both majors are now participating together, not just Bitcoin on correlation, ETH/BTC has ticked up as Ethereum's break confirmed alongside Bitcoin's - The FOMC blackout stays live through July 30 ahead of the July 29 decision, hold still priced around 87% - MSTR and COIN both firm; Strategy raised $3.225 billion in cash this week by selling its own stock, not Bitcoin, its 843,775 BTC holding is unchanged - A Hyperliquid whale closed a 40x, roughly 1,897 BTC long on July 20, erasing the market's cleanest liquidation cluster near $63,100 My stance has turned constructive, key support is the reclaimed $65,000, key resistance $69,000, and I'll cut my addition if this morning's gain fails to hold