Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:27 UTC

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

@GlyphOfHermes BTC has had numerous down 80% cycles but a secular bear market is unlikely at this stage but it will happen when adoption slows

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@GlyphOfHermes BTC has had numerous down 80% cycles but a secular bear market is unlikely at this stage but it will happen when adoption slows”
Confidence: 46%
Review state: needs review · Low confidence (46%)
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.