Prediction evidence

In reply to · 16 Jul 2026, 14:48 UTC · context given to the AI

5 of the 6 bottom signals I track says Bitcoin has already found its floor. The 6th one says we're not even close, and it's the one I care about the most. Here's what the data says: • MVRV Z-Score: around -1, back in the same zone that marked the bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022 • AVIV Z-Score: also around -1, but prior cycles pushed closer to -1.5 before the real low, so this one still leaves room for another flush • Sell-side Risk Ratio: just hit a 43-month low, right around FTX territory, which ended up being the last cycle's low • Fear & Greed: February printed the most bearish reading on record, BTC then made a lower low in June, but fear never followed it down, that's a real bullish divergence • S2F / 4-year cadence: price stopped tracking this a while ago, but the timing rhythm still roughly holds, we're about 9 months into this bear vs the ~12 month average of past cycles, though ETF demand could easily stretch that window longer than usual • ETF Flows: record $4.5B in monthly outflows, mostly IBIT. 5 out of 6 are already pointing towards a bottom. The prob is this drawdown is still way shallower than past cycles (-51% vs -77% to -84%), and ETF flows have been pretty weak so far this year. If we get another flush, I'm watching the $48k-$58k zone. What makes me cautious is the on-chain signals only tell you sellers are exhausted. ETF flows tell you whether buyers have shown up. Anyways, never been someone who tries to time the exact bottom. If you're not sure, I think now's a good time to dca in.