Prediction evidence

Quoting · 16 Jul 2026, 17:22 UTC · context given to the AI

Here are some updates on $SPCX since retail is probably bagged in this >200. #1 - SpaceX unlocks haven't happened yet; there is still a big flood of unlocks inbound. #2 - xAI shareholders are being advised under Rule 144 that their converted stock (xAI->SpaceX) needs to revest, and xAI shareholders who now own SpaceX won't get access to their stock until Feb 2027. No early unlocks for them! That's like 20% or so of the company, IIRC. PE/VC managers need to hedge their carried interest, and this is supposed to be their biggest PE windfall ever in notional terms, so expect hedging pressure to continue. 30% of the float is short, but I would wager a lot of this is against illiquid private stock. Maybe this becomes a valuable long one day, but shoving this into the indexes was a hype mistake, and thankfully, S&P held off.