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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2077428107418481087:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Jul 2026, 16:20 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$BTC / $USD - Update $64,400 remains the critical support zone we need to hold onto for the leg up to $67,000 https://t.co/yJmt3j6MyC

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,063 at 15 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,431 at 16 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 64430.68 / 65062.84 − 1 = -0.97%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.97% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC / $USD - Update”
Confidence: 68%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$65,063

Evaluation price

$64,431

Move

-0.97%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

22 Oct 2026, 03:17 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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