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Published 15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC
₿IRB
@crypto_birb
We're the first halving cycle actually underwater at this point. It's because Bitcoin cycle lows have a pattern: At day 775 post-halving, previous cycles were up: 2010-12: 117.9x 2012-16: 21.7x 2016-20: 9.94x 2020-24: 2.12x Current cycle at day 775: 0.98x. Below the halving-day price. Now let's add the seasonal tape. Over 16 years of Bitcoin data, September and October print the year's lowest average price. Underperforming cycle. Historical low window. Weakest seasonal period. All lining up. Sep-Oct 2026 is where the cycle low statistically prints. 4 months of chop then load the dip and retire in 3 years. Who's in?🖐️View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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