Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $MANIFEST price at or after publication, $0.01896 at 14 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.01889 at 15 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.018885060334050834 / 0.018955420621819846 − 1 = -0.4%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology