Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,203 at 13 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,694 at 14 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
3. r = 64693.5 / 62203.43 − 1 = +4.0%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -4.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology