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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 7 Jul 2026, 20:16 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: A Kalshi trader opened a long position on Bitcoin last week with 6x leverage This trader will double their money if $BTC hits $71,732 Liquidation price: $51,236 https://t.co/DtPovNUN4a

Perfect example of why I don't think the bottom is in yet. His liquidation sits at $51K. That's not just his level it's the entire market's. The Coinglass heatmap shows massive liquidity stacked from $53K down to $49K. That's the pool. That's the magnet. Bottom-callers this week are going to be exit liquidity for that flush. $55K and $50K my bids still stacked. Waiting.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,831 at 8 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $65,340 at 15 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 65339.51 / 61830.69 − 1 = +5.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -5.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Perfect example of why I don't think the bottom is in yet. His liquidation sits at $51K. That's not just his level it's the entire market's. The Coinglass heatmap shows massive liquidity stacked from $53K down to $49K. That's the pool. That's the magnet. Bottom-callers this ”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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