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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @Nebraskangooner / 2074592339205472641:memecoin:$PATH

Prediction evidence

neutralPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 7 Jul 2026, 20:32 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Ne

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

$PATH (per request) Pretty straight forward diagonal downtrend to tackle. https://t.co/awSW252LjH

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $PATH price at or after publication, $0.00001147 at 7 Jul 2026, 20:32 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.00001147 at 8 Jul 2026, 20:32 UTC.
r = 0.0000114738662674696 / 0.0000114738662674696 − 1 = 0.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = 0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $PATH ($PATH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$PATH (per request)”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

neutral

Baseline price

$0.00001147

Evaluation price

$0.00001147

Move

0.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

geckoterminal

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 17:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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