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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 7 Jul 2026, 13:03 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Killa

@KillaXBT

The past couple of NY opens have been bullish for $BTC Let's see if we get another push upwards on the LTF. https://t.co/ENaR34HF3u

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,980 at 7 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $61,877 at 8 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 61876.56 / 62980.47 − 1 = -1.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time