Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Jul 2026, 19:31 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

It's probably going to be one of those periods where; - #Bitcoin moves first and takes all the liquidity from the rest of the markets. - Altcoins vs. $BTC correct. - #Bitcoin cools down after the first rally upwards --> #Altcoins follow through. Until there's a market-wide correction and then everything comes back down. Generally speaking I think that we'll see 1-2 months of upwards momentum until a harsh correction and then another 4-5 months of upwards momentum until February/March.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“We just printed new lows on Bitcoin, sentiment is the worst I've seen this entire cycle, and everyone and their mother is short. That's exactly the kind of setup that tends to reverse the hardest. In this update I break down why I think the market is bottoming, what's really behind the STRC panic dragging Bitcoin down, and what I've been doing with my altcoin portfolio this month. What I cover: – Bitcoin: we broke the 200-week MA but price stalled instead of cascading, why that tells me demand is absorbing the selling, and the 61K and 67K levels I'm watching for confirmation. – The short-squeeze setup: Coinbase premium and funding rate both deeply negative, the fuel is sitting on the short side, not the long side. – The STRC / Saylor panic: why the "Strategy goes to zero" narrative doesn't hold up, and the digital-credit update that de-risks the whole thesis. – Macro: the inflation read pointing to no hikes for the next 6 months, and what that historically means for risk assets. – My portfolio: why I'm changing how I run it, taking profits into strength instead of holding full positions through everything and why I added to NEAR on the back of its revenue growth. – Watchlist: SUI and the multi-timeframe divergence I've been tracking against Bitcoin. We're hitting the same on-chain and sentiment levels we saw at every previous bear market bottom, 2018, 2022, and now. How you handle this part of the cycle is what decides the next one. Thanks to @vestexchange for sponsoring this video. VEST is my partner for funded trading. They have an in-house exchange where you can trade on all assets. Get a $10,000 funded account for less than $60 with my 50% discount code ‘POPPE’ here: Full breakdown 👇”Repeat6 Jul 2026, 14:02 UTC
“That's a great bounce from $BTC from these regions. It's following the path that I wanted to see for upwards continuation. Retest, but not too deep, and then we can proceed moving upwards where we're likely going to test the resistance (and take the liquidity above the high) at $67,000-68,000.”

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “- #Bitcoin moves first and takes all the liquidity from the rest of the markets.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record