Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,500 at 6 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $62,539 at 13 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 62538.66 / 63499.87 − 1 = -1.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology