Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,996 at 6 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,502 at 7 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 63501.5 / 61995.96 − 1 = +2.4%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology