Loading…

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Jul 2026, 15:24 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

In reply to · 3 Jul 2026, 23:58 UTC · context given to the AI

2029 BTC bear market will be brutal. Dems will dump 328,372 BTC and the price will go from $200,000 to $130,000 overnight. https://t.co/Epm5CqHaQ5

@BTCoptioneer More likely $20k to $13k, if the price is even still that high by then.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,881 at 4 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,686 at 5 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 62686.17 / 62881.21 − 1 = -0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@BTCoptioneer More likely $20k to $13k, if the price is even still that high by then.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3