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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jul 2026, 16:53 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

I Bet you Barely Beheld these Bitcoin Bear Bars - - - Now, % LTH Supply-in-loss is at ~45%, which is the second-highest value measured at the ENDS of all previous bear markets 👀 We are also beyond the median value (even excluding the 2011 bear!). Bottom is likely here or near. https://t.co/8itOWhxUYX

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,045 at 3 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,868 at 4 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 62867.78 / 62045.27 − 1 = +1.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +1.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “I Bet you Barely Beheld these Bitcoin Bear Bars - - - Now, % LTH Supply-in-loss is at ~45%, which is the second-highest value measured at the ENDS of all previous bear markets 👀”
Confidence: 89%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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