Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,640 at 3 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,429 at 4 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC.
3. r = 62429.04 / 61640.05 − 1 = +1.3%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology