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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @MacroCRG / 2072971666527748486:memecoin:2zMMhcVQEXDtdE6vsFS7S7D5oUodfJHE8vd1gnBouauv

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jul 2026, 09:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Ma

CRG

@MacroCRG

solana:2zMMhcVQEXDtdE6vsFS7S7D5oUodfJHE8vd1gnBouauv teasing a 4H break out https://t.co/nR3skHFyzw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $PENGU price at or after publication, $0.00677 at 3 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $0.006767 at 3 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 0.0067668796793118 / 0.006770245518205483 − 1 = -0.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $PENGU ($PENGU)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “solana:2zMMhcVQEXDtdE6vsFS7S7D5oUodfJHE8vd1gnBouauv teasing a 4H break out https://t.co/nR3skHFyzw”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$0.00677

Evaluation price

$0.006767

Move

-0.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

geckoterminal

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 19:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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