Published 3 Jul 2026, 03:39 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:37 UTC
Mike Alfred
@mikealfred
Quoting · 2 Jul 2026, 18:23 UTC · context given to the AI
We are probably already past March 2020. The two previous Copper/Gold bottoms (red) happened within a month of the Bitcoin mid-cycle bottoms (orange). After that, Bitcoin spent 5–6 months grinding upwards before going full vertical. This time, the Copper/Gold bottom occurred around the Feb 1st Bitcoin capitulation. If we assume Feb 1st is our mid-cycle bottom, equivalent to March 2020, we should currently be in that 5–6 month grind-up phase. However, I believe the 4-year cycle narrative turned that grind-up phase into a grind-down, with bears still not believing the cycle has changed and trying to force it lower (and spectacularly failing to do so). If the same timeline holds, we should skip the grind-up phase entirely, since that time was consumed grinding down, and go completely vertical within a month or so in a spectacular short squeeze.It has been my supposition since early February that we are in a mid cycle correction similar to March 2020. Now others are starting to pick up on this idea and run with it. https://t.co/6tnQKtFM6UView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63392.87 / 61350.93 − 1 = +3.3%d × r = +3.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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