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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Jul 2026, 18:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

61.8k big level for $BTC to break the EMA but would also create 10/20 day crossover if it gets a little more steam. You can thank me for the bottom tweet the other day I would suspect it rolls over but we'll see, money leaving equities temporarily may look to speculate here https://t.co/k80PBKTL6f

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,699 at 2 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,150 at 3 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 62149.99 / 61699.16 − 1 = +0.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “61.8k big level for $BTC to break the EMA but would also create 10/20 day crossover if it gets a little more steam.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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